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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-07T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37722/-1
CME Note: This narrow on-disk CME is seen as a faint flux rope due south in SOHO LASCO C2 and simultaneously as a faint loop to the southeast in STEREO A COR2, which is currently 30 degrees to the west of SOHO LASCO. The source is a subtle eruption from AR 4012 (S20W00) starting at 2025-03-07T21:35Z, seen as dimming, brightening, and field line opening in SDO AIA 193 and 171, as well as GOES SUVI 284 and 304. || Arrival: The very weak passing influence of CME: 2025-03-07T22:12Z detected by ACE at L1 starting at 2025-03-10T13:44Z characterized by a brief period of compression from 2025-03-10T09:50Z to 13:36Z, followed by an inconsistent rotation in the Bx and By components lasting from 2025-03-10T13:44Z to about 2025-03-10T22:16Z. B-total does not become significantly enhanced during this period of rotation, remaining around 5 nT. The density and temperature both do not exhibit any significant increase or decrease.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T13:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-03-08T00:39Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 992
Longitude (deg): E007
Latitude (deg): S33
Half-angular width (deg): 12

Notes: Low prob of glancing blow. No sig impacts expected.
Space weather advisor: Duty Forecaster

Lead Time: 46.73 hour(s)
Difference: -4.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-03-08T15:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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